Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 20.210331 24.360496 28.954888 34.391708 40.621926 47.510163 55.672780
2025-03-09 13.932569 19.269893 25.819690 34.329892 44.966040 57.686478 73.903117
2025-03-16 9.716257 15.104694 22.305883 32.383047 45.840173 62.893647 85.799694
2025-03-23 7.912005 13.535230 21.581288 33.506536 50.244380 72.373548 103.229246
2025-03-30 6.184030 11.633251 19.965666 33.004196 52.163529 78.481256 116.413053
2025-04-06 5.376359 10.953118 19.959907 34.681483 57.107723 88.835229 135.730372
2025-04-13 3.958300 8.919790 17.495342 32.270630 55.760030 90.152719 142.478464
2025-04-20 3.355108 8.199656 17.033310 32.883238 58.905235 97.989597 158.726409
2025-04-27 2.903845 7.664906 16.790426 33.781880 62.496292 106.610302 176.449532
2025-05-04 2.561571 7.272990 16.732809 34.953033 66.555813 116.093305 195.814878
2025-05-11 2.215164 6.787287 16.416111 35.605716 69.762297 124.372102 213.672795
2025-05-18 1.840194 6.136532 15.668196 35.371041 71.411633 130.234756 228.029272
2025-05-25 1.444598 5.358899 14.617941 34.618242 72.405331 135.585989 242.658204
2025-06-01 1.165639 4.803506 13.956713 34.564157 74.680182 143.249695 261.486610
2025-06-08 0.838049 3.961861 12.462539 32.607065 73.272788 144.642812 270.267032
2025-06-15 0.725194 3.759785 12.452168 33.736821 77.696772 156.125046 295.933267
2025-06-22 0.565832 3.316506 11.737077 33.231701 78.912484 162.084662 312.676996
2025-06-29 0.509802 3.244745 11.989920 34.918245 84.537979 176.044264 343.346247
2025-07-06 0.345938 2.617142 10.552340 32.494058 81.696804 174.711109 347.983786
2025-07-13 0.289600 2.445608 10.400231 33.110072 85.116536 184.865919 372.713694
2025-07-20 0.247782 2.321770 10.367835 34.013689 89.192392 196.397988 400.234417
2025-07-27 0.216508 2.236469 10.441329 35.191286 93.924031 209.343821 430.663003
2025-08-03 0.181673 2.102294 10.321245 35.847542 97.558214 220.360202 458.024388